Andrew L. Fry, Vice President, Director of Projects at Free Range Media, Inc.
Using the World Wide Web Wanderer, an Internet automaton, Mathew Gray, a student at MIT, has attempted to estimate size and growth of the Web and reported the following results as of early 1994: "Wow, the Web is BIG". There are a variety of more precise statistical figures he and others provide at the MIT site and elsewhere on the net which attempt to quantify file transfer as a function of traffic, web server sites and of course, number of Internet users. All three are important in defining the Internet as a mass medium. The first, traffic, is a measure of interaction; the second, number of server sites, as a measure of content and the third, number of users, representing audience.
One figure commonly used to estimate the Internet user base is an audience of 20,000,000 to 30,000,000 people with a growth rate of 10% to 20% per month. The figure is derived in formulaic fashion and is the subject of debate, as is demonstrated in the copyrighted article entitled "How Big is the Internet", by Vanderbilt professors Donna L. Hoffman and Thomas P. Novak. This article can be read on-line on www.wired.com. However, my favorite figure, favorite because I love big numbers, comes from testimony before the US House of Representatives, Committee on Science, Space and Technology on March 23, 1993 by Vinton Cerf. Cerf estimates 100 million users in the foreseeable future. Whatever the true figure, the growth is phenomenal, and with the arrival of Internet access promised via America Online, and similar on-line service organizations, it appears that everyone is jumping on the bandwidth-wagon.
Where the Internet differs from other mass media markets is in its unique ability to combine protocols supported by the World Wide Web project to deliver information, communication and interactivity. However the Internet is only the delivery system, just as broadcast is the delivery system for television and radio, and print is the platform for newspapers and magazines. Each protocol can and will continue to be used individually for piecemeal data delivery, just as business will use the Internet to move profit centers on-line as virtual storefronts, but the power of mass communication will be unleashed through the development of information communities and events. It is within these communities and during these events that communication and information will be presented to the mass market audience.
Accompanying the rush of participants to the Web is a wealth of new content. The types of content are specific to their intent and the protocol being used for delivery. The World Cup USA '94 was both a sporting event and an electronic event. A significant proportion of the global community watched in stadiums, on radio, on television and over the Internet as the football teams from around the world vied for supremacy. Universities and computer companies alike are building communities around their web sites under the umbrella of their names and through the services they provide. CommerceNet is building a business community around its referral and networking abilities. Each is interfacing to audiences of various sizes, and all are contributing to the growth of the World Wide Web by providing more content.
As a measurement of Internet expansion different from that of audience , the growth rate of content materials and interactive applications is equally impressive. The Internet Domain Survey, July 1994, reported an 81% growth of host sites over the last year. What is especially interesting is that the number of web sites appearing is increasing in pace with the growth of new users hopping onto the net. The result is that though the magnitude of potential audience is increasing, the competition for that audience is growing as well.
When a television program builds a popular following, it generates word of mouth and is conversational fodder for the water cooler. It is not hard to imagine co-workers discussing last nights expose' on "60 Minutes". It is a cultural phenomenon which can only occur when a large enough proportion of the available audience shares in the viewing of a particular program. In late 1993, a parallel to this type of interaction would take place between myself and those in my circle of acquaintances who also cruised the net. "Did you see the web site in the UK that gave you an opportunity to view reviews on local Pubs?" might very well have been answered "yes". However, just recently, Laura Fillmore, of Editorial Inc. and the Online Bookstore, and I had a conversation in which we mentioned several sites that the other had not been to or heard of, and we both spend a goodly amount of time cruising the net. I believe it is because the pool of information pouring on to the web is diluting the core audience . The exception would be when the site is so unique or the sponsor so large that it is hard to miss it.
Other than competition for audience, in what other ways do the more traditional mass mediums compare to the Internets World Wide Web? Though exceptions exist the following is a general analysis of the rule.
Broadcast has networks feeding stations which deliver programming fueled by grants and advertisements. The programming provides information, entertainment and solicitations to an audience. The audience is referred to as "viewership" or "listenership" and has some limited interaction with content providers. Measurements are taken via a ratings system to estimate number of people reached in order to further fuel the programming.
Print has publishers creating a number of publications which deliver topical editorial content fueled by subscription and advertisements. Publications in turn provide information, entertainment and solicitations to an audience. The audience is referred to as readership and has some limited interaction with content providers through letters to the editors, public forum sections and as of late, email accounts. Measurements are taken in terms of circulation to estimate number of people reached in order to further determine editorial content.
The World Wide Web via the Internet has no equivalent of an ABC, NBC, Hearst Corporation or Gannett yet, but there are GNNs and MecklerWebs trying to bring organization to information and content on a widespread scale. Some web sites are delivering topical editorial content fueled by grants and sponsorship. Two excellent examples are, the World Cup USA '94 site, brought to the Internet by SUN, Sprint and EDS, and HotWIRED, brought to the Internet by WIRED magazine, provide information, entertainment and exposure for sponsors to an audience. The audience can interact directly and in real time with the content and content providers. There are no reliable third party evaluations of audience size available, but hits can be tallied and information flow can be measured.
Some members of the Internet community may take offense to the commercial parallels that I am drawing, so let me say now that anyone who creates solicitations and advertisements that occur for the Internet should be cognizant of it's culture and sensitive to it, or else there will probably be a backlash to the sponsoring agent is probable. I generally sum it up by saying, "if you want someone to see your information, put out the welcome mat and ask them in, but don't go knocking on their doors." This point has not been missed by the principal players in the mass media markets. Advertising Age has dedicated copy to it, reprinted in the Wall Street Journal regarding correct practices for marketing via the net. A topic unto itself.
Because of its potential for immediate interaction and direct transactions, several business models are currently being implemented on the net. Home Shopping Network has purchased Internet Shopping Network[ALF1], Macmillan Publishing has created an independent business unit which will operate as a virtual bookstore and many content owners are scrambling to find a way to produce new revenue streams. For pure editorial content which delivers entertainment and information, WIRED magazine is now producing HotWIRED, the first web site to publish materials based on the virtues of the medium that delivers it. Coming soon from the Online Bookstore will be another magazine based on the Mideast. The success of this electric magazine and HotWIRED, will further define how the World Wide Web functions as its own mass medium. These examples alone give indication of the interest stirring in the broader media markets trying to tap into the massive audience that exists there.
As competition for that audience gets fiercer, the challenge for the information provider will be reaching that audience, measuring them, keeping them, and paying for the expense of doing all of the above. Problems, in other words that are not unfamiliar to other media. This competition is good for the Internet. In order to attract more people to a site, the quality of the information, interaction and user experience will continue to climb as sites compete for viewers. Those sites with distinct personality, appeal and a recurring value will rise to the top as Mass Appeal Destinations for Internet Travel.
In order to develop successful, topical programs on the net, your site must do three things. First, it must develop a recognizable look and feel - which we will call "branding". Second, it must maintain a high standard for delivering hard to get or consistently entertaining material - which we will call "quality of content". And third, it must build, measure, and maintain a community of users - which we will call "the audience" or "information community". This third task, building the information community, will be the most important aspect of developing webbed materials, and I intend to address it in detail.
Branding is an issue of HTML structure and style as well look and feel, but the look and feel will be the most palpable qualities in a virtual world. Look for the nation's advertising and marketing firms to make their impact on the Internet through their expertise in creating personality through graphical presentation. Two firms already making that impact are of Messner Vetere Berger McNamee Schmeterrer who have delivered the Gramercy Press national campaign to the Internet via sponsorship on HotWIREDs Flux, and Cole and Weber, a Seattle based marketing firm who currently are taking on the challenge of delivering electronic branding to clients creating their own web sites. Another company, Ogilvey and Mather, has taken the interactive activity serious enough to direct their attention to the investigation of user psychographics.
A loose measure of quality of the branding can be taken with a simple test consisting of two questions. Can the user, at any time in moving around in the hypermedia, identify the location within the logical structure of information? and is the content provider easily identified by graphic markers that reside at or within a link or two from the content?
As for quality of the content, this is of course subjective, but reasonable measures include ease of use, accuracy of information, timeliness of information delivery, level of interaction and overall user experience. Are navigational tools available for use so that the viewer can readily find what he or she is searching for? This can be by way of a graphical interface, logical structure of textual links, keyword searching through WAIS or any number of retrieval solutions. Is the information pertinent and accurate? Garbage in, garbage out is still a rule, so fact checking, copy editing, and adherence to quality assurance standards should be incorporated into the content construction. Does the viewer have to wait lengthy periods of time to obtain the document selected or the interactive information? Before designing the content, a minimum configuration for the viewing audience should be determined. For a highly graphical, media intensive site, you need to set expectations for the audience and make those expectations clear at the common entry points within the logical structure of the bound media. Other considerations include server equipment requirements for anticipated audience size and style guides that allow for presentation of information during file transfers to fill the wait period. How much does the information community contribute to the content, and what level of sophistication is inherent in the interactive devices? If you create an opportunity for the viewers to contribute to the content, you encourage them to invest a personal stake in your location. Allow for questions to be asked and answered on-line through dedicated newsgroups and listservers, make submissions a possibility, and incorporate email into the communication of information whenever it is feasible. The overall user experience will be a combination of factors, and the more that is done to enhance the user participation without interrupting information flow, the more likely the return of the viewer to the site.
Though the multitudes of levels that occurred to me were interesting, more so were the distinct archetypal shifts that I discovered at points along the line. Moving from one level to the next was simple to demonstrate for the most part, but at certain points a necessary transitional stage was reached. In order to continue changing levels, a different approach to what constituted a level change needed to be used. The transitions of levels went from elemental differences within an HTML document, to the implementation of internal and external links which introduced a structural change from level to level. Next the emphasis was on functionality as a basis for level increases and ended at a transitional point where incremental changes were due to an increase in the complexity of the communal nature of the constructed web site.
The elemental levels focused on pieces of information and their presentation. A single line of text with a coherent idea was the starting point for elemental increases in information posted on the web. When you introduce more text and additional formatting to the information via HTML codes the levels changes. Soon you have a full document with complex character formatting, bulleted data lists, and links internal to the document which combine to support the idea or message. When the combinations of formatting with HTML and internal links were exhausted, the approach to what constituted a change from level to level in also changed. A second HTML document is added and links between documents are established. The links between the documents may then lead elsewhere on to the net, but when they lead to other documents which support, add information too, or in any other way act as companion to the document they were linked to, you have added levels of structural complexity to the interactive picture.
In order to measure differences from that point forward, level changes occurred in the structural components of the HTML document rather than in the formatting. The introduction of pictorial graphics, sequential presentation of ideas via linked documents, and interface designing using navigational graphics constituted level changes at this stage. When structural differences became strategical in nature the various levels moved into the functional realm. More simply put, when what has been constructed with links performs a specific function.
The functional levels range from the creation of a general comment feedback form, to the complexity of recreating, through strategic hyperlinks, functional on-line documents such as a technical manual or a catalog. I defined each level not only by its functional structure but by the incremental additions of interactive delivery of information specific to the viewer need. If someone else were performing the same exercise, they might choose different increments, but the general idea would remain the same. Additions to each level of complexity is accomplished via many of the protocols supported by the World Wide Web Project including (but not limited to) FTP, Gopher, Email, and WAIS. When you mix in forms support, server side scripting of applications, and the Network News protocol for the creation of topical newsgroups with the functional elements that perform tasks relative to a common theme or a specific system, the level increments move into the communal level. When creatively weaving in Chat Group and M.U.D. capabilities you have introduced viewer to viewer interaction as well.
It is within this communal dimension of levels where audiences for this mass medium will be built. Success at a interactive level means branding of the site can be effectively established and measurements of exposure can be taken for entry points, groups of documents and subtopical modules. Communal entities already exist at this level in the form of common research and collaborative information sites. Currently there are even several virtual businesses. Two large scale examples which come to mind are the Internet Shopping Network and the Macmillan Publishings on-line publishing unit. Sites consisting of editorial content driven by sponsorship are few, and as the competition for audience of this type of site intensifies, the need to satisfy returning viewers will become greater.
In order for sponsorship of editorially driven web sites to increase in number, faith in the measurement of audience and a better demographic profiles will be needed. A Nielson Ratings type of company for the Internet is an opportunity that exists today and is needed to fuel the growth of entertainment on the net. Currently the numbers used for the descriptions of audience are anecdotal These anecdotal numbers, as well as those collected by tallying devices set up to measure frequency of visits to a location, provide some interesting figures about the number of viewers visiting a site. However, these anecdotes still do not add up to data credible enough to meet the demands of large scale sponsorship. A neutral authority is needed to authenticate these numbers.
Here are a sampling of the anecdotal numbers I've encountered in conversation or off of a news wire over the last few months. "Hits" are measured when someone views a document from the web site:
20,000 hits at the Hewlett Packard web site in it's first week linked off of CommerceNet.
30,000 hits in one day at www.mtv.com (now www.metaverse.com).
2,000 hits the first day www.ibm.com went up without the benefit of announcement
A weekly hit rate 90,000 at www.wired.com (given to me by chip@wired.com).
And as a final example, the Internet community was so excited about the site carrying graphics of the meteor collisions on Jupiter, it was brought to a halt because so many wanted to view at one time.
These are wonderful numbers and over time worthy of any mass medium, and though I know and believe the people who have shared them with me, they amount very little until an independent audit can be done by a third party. "Ratings" for a particular web site will not only consist of number of hits either. Number of emails generated from the site, volume of postings at registered and related news groups and of course demographic information generated via questionnaires, comments and order forms are potential additions to a formula for estimating audience. Where as television has number of viewers and audience share, the Internet may have number of exposures and electronic traffic generated. The electronic traffic is a measure of the interactive component of the medium, a component which will distinguish it from it's kin.
They are related. Newspapers, television and the other mass media are the World Wide Webs kin, though it may not be that obvious right now. What we are seeing now does give us a glimpse at what is just down the information highway.
Just as there are newsletters for small organizations there are internationally distributed newspapers like the Wall Street Journal.
Just as there are small publishing houses and vanity presses there are Simon and Schusters and Warner Books.
Just as there are local public broadcast system stations showing two people discussing city council meetings,. there are CBS, ABC, NBC and FOX stations turning out globally broadcast panel discussions.
Just as there are independent filmmakers, there are MGMs.
And just as there are and will continue to be small independent web sites which can draw from a potentially global audience, there will be content rich, highly interactive, well organized and temporally dynamic mirrored web sites which are managed by dedicated staff and fueled by the economics for sponsorship.
Andrew L. Fry is co-founder and Director of Projects for Free Range Media, Inc., a multimedia publishing company which focuses on the Internet. Formally a project manager at Microsoft, Inc. where he worked for five years, he has also worked in television at a Seattle CBS affiliate station, owned and operated his own video production company, published magazine articles and written scripts for everything from business video to public service announcements.
andrew@freerange.com