These implications can be taken down to a more specific level. Industries and occupations will be affected.
One industry that would seem threatened is broadcast media. To the extent that products and services are marketed more efficiently on the Web, then TV and radio will enjoy less revenue. This will occur even if the inherent ability of these media to entertain consumers stays the same or improves, because for advertisers the relative cost of providing information on these media will appear to be higher. The range of products and services that are most effectively marketed using mass media will be narrower than is the case today.
Some service industries may be threatened by the low cost of providing information. Consumers may start to make "end runs" around professional lawyers, doctors, real estate agents, stock brokers, insurance agents, etc., because the demand for these professions is a function of consumer ignorance. In the future, consumers may make more of their own decisions in these fields, based on information that is more readily available. Eventually, one must consider the possibility that students will be able to make "end runs" around colleges and universities in order to obtain effective and credible education.
At an occupational level, clearly this line of thinking would indicate that there will be fewer sales clerks in the future, as automated order-taking expands on the Web. More interestingly, corporate MIS may be a threatened occupation. The thinking here is that corporate MIS exists to maintain proprietary systems that meet the needs of internal customers, while the focus in the future will be on reaching external customers using standard Internet protocols. Therefore, corporations with big MIS departments may find themselves beaten out by firms with a lower MIS overhead.
Corporate executive also may be a threatened occupation. Executives are skilled at managing the internal flow of information. Like the corporate MIS department, this function may be less important in the future.
The foregoing would suggest that I am predicting that all sorts of jobs will be "lost." I want to hasten to point out that conventional economics would say that an innovation that cuts costs and raises productivity will tend to raise economic well-being. It will create new industries, and it will create new opportunities. The gains will more than offset the losses.
New industries include more than just Internet service providers. They include products and services that would not have been economical with the marketing cost structure that existed prior to the Web. Narrow-interest movies and music, for example.
Industries that help filter information for consumers will be important. Something like an on-line magazine that takes a particular topic, organizes information, and offers product reviews could be a major industry. A service that surveys a consumer's tastes and past purchases and builds a statistical model to predict what products and information would interest that consumer may be very important. This will differ from traditional market research or direct-mail solicitation in that consumers are likely to play an active role in seeking out, evaluating, and choosing such services.
An occupation with new potential could be that of librarian. Every business may need to hire librarians to help design Web displays. A super-librarian tomorrow could be the equivalent of a super-salesperson today.
Instead of a business executive, perhaps there will be consumer executives. They will be skilled at providing consumers with information and at providing consumers with tools to convey their interests and preferences to firms.
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